The Mount Batur Eruption Dates - By Expedition Bali Tours

Is Mount Batur due, or even overdue to let off more than just steam?
 
 With so many industries and people within those industries relying on the Mount Batur volcano for an income including farmers, shop owners, the fishing industry, the sand miners, the federal government for all the taxes and fees they collect from tourism operators conducting Bali tours including ourselves that are also reliant on the volcano for an income, we thought we had best check this out from a business stand point. After doing the sums in our simple case study that follows, we decided to diversify into waterfall tours as well. See why below:
 

 Mount Batur has one of the most awe inspiring calderas on the planet. It's nearly 14 km's across x 10 kilometres across and houses Lake Batur. (Lake Batur is probably responsible for keeping the Mount Batur Volcano at least partially cooled) Mount Batur is said to be 1717 meters above sea level. The numbers "1717" are literally carved in stone near the top of the volcano. It makes sense for the volcano to be dropping though. All that ash and lava over the years has to come from somewhere right?

 
 In September 2012 UNESCO granted the area World Heritage listing status because of the area's "Cultural Significance & Natural Scenery"
 
 It's widely believed that the first eruption happened around 27,300 BCE (give or take a few years) and this particular volcano is known as a "stratovolcano" type.

 The Balinese have a belief that loosely translates to something like the Chinese Yin & Yang. "If you take from the mountain, at some stage the mountain will want it back." Along those lines anyway. I'll probably need to get clarification of the exact wording when the opportunity arises in the future when one of our Bali tours crosses with an elder from the region and we're not in a hurry.
 
 Anyway, here are the dates we have managed to put together over the years, and then confirmed by a volcanologist that did PhD on Mount Batur in Bristol University for our guides to be as accurate as possible when doing tours:

 So our decision to venture into waterfalls tours as well came after this simple maths equation in our early business case study of doing any Bali tours in the future:

 
 The biggest gaps are:
 1926 - 1963 = 37 years, and at the end of this big gap 1963 was a big eruption with lava flow.

1888 - 1854 = 34 years, and at the end of this big gap 1888 was a big eruption with lava flow.

1821 - 1849 = 18 years, and at the end of the big gap 1849 was a big eruption with lava flow.

1976 - 1994 = 18 years, and at the end of the big gap 1994 was a big eruption with lava flow.

This is the simple maths, the simple logic: If there is a big gap, there's a big eruption with lava flow that follows:

2000 - 2023 = 23 years so far.- We're due for a "big eruption with lava flow"

Mount Agung - November 2017
 

The above is Mount Agung
 Below is a satellite heat map showing Agung and Mount Batur are linked.
 Only six year ago Mount Agung let a bit more than steam. Will this relieve the stress on Mount Batur, or is Mount Agung eruption simply a precursor to Mount Batur's eminent eruption?
 

 
 This is the third longest time in recorded history the volcano hasn't had a melt down of some kind. On top of this, consistently after a long stretch of no activity, the next eruption is a big one with lava flow.

Interestingly you'll be able to view a lot of these different lava flows on our 4x4 Volcano Explorer, Traditional Village & 4x4 Sunrise Sensation Private Tours because the lava is different colours. Our guides have shown the different colours to our guests on our Bali tours for years now .
 
 Obviously, we have better technology to predict a massive event like a lava flowing volcano eruption than we had in 1963 when we're told many villagers lost their lives (an estimated 1600 villagers). The technology in the caldera area itself may have advanced from bringing water up from the lake in buckets to water their crops to now having water pumped with a petrol powered water pump; however, the locals just don't have access to the information required should there be an emergency where the whole caldera has to be evacuated. Many thousands of people live and make a living from the rich soils in the caldera. I personally only know of one way in and out of the Caldera, there are probably a few more, however, a mass evacuation... you would want that lava flow to be of the slow moving variety.
 
 We're lucky, all we have to do is get a 4x4 out with our staff and family in it with all they can carry in the back of the 4x4, (belongings, family and friends) most will have a lot more to lose than that.
 
 So, we'll leave this with you to be the judge of when this particular volcano that is classed as "active" is due to let off more than just steam. We'll continue to do Bali tours of the wonderful area that is Kintamani and the Mount Batur / caldera area. At least we now have the accurate dates recorded somewhere for everyone to enjoy. If you find dates that contradict what we have, we'd be interested in taking a look if you'd care to share the information with us so we can check the credibility of the reference dates. Until then, we'll continue our Bali tours keeping a close eye on Mount Batur.
 
 Russ - CEO
 Expedition Bali Tours